Support Levels if Pullback Begins

Each of several price zones noted on the way up is where to watch for potential support on the way down if a retracement comes before new trend highs. Near-term support is at today’s low of 2,124. A decline below that low is the sign of weakness that could lead to a deeper pullback. The prior record high at 2,135, followed by the prior swing high at 2,088 (B) are the first areas to watch for signs of support. Subsequently, there is the 8-Day MA at 2,076 followed by the 2,066, which was previously resistance over several days.

Breakout of Multi-Year Base

Gold is in the process of attempting to breakout of a multi-year basing period. It is supported by signs in the monthly chart, which show a consolidation phase for the past several months. On the weekly and daily charts, the consolidation pattern took the form of a symmetrical triangle. The breakout of the pattern has been clear and decisive. As of today, the price of gold has risen above the top of the pattern, further confirming strength. It also can be seen as improving the potential for gold to reach the minimum target projected from the pattern at 2,189. Whether it does so before or after a retracement remains to be seen.

Measured Moves Confirm Triangle Target

Previous measured moves provide further evidence for the 2,189-target zone being reached. Gold had two relatively sharp advances starting from the October 2023 swing low. A degree of symmetry shows between the two moves. The first advance was 11% and the second 10.5%. Gold will match a 10.5% rally in the current advance once it reaches 1,194, just five points from the triangle target.

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