The GBPJPY pair reached the initial extra target at 204.65, which forces it to form sideways trading due to its neediness to the positive momentum, depending on forming extra support at 203.85, increasing the chances of gaining the required extra bullish momentum for recording extra gains that begin at 205.25 and 205.70.
While the failure to settle above 203.85 will push it to provide mixed trading, and there is a chance to begin gathering some gains, to expect reaching 203.10 to test %161.8 Fibonacci extension level near 202.45.
The expected trading range for today is between 203.90 and 202.25
The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) softened on Tuesday as a sharp equity selloff unsettled investors and pushed demand back toward safer assets.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3141, down almost 0.2% from the start of the session.
The US Dollar (USD) inched higher on Tuesday, with risk-off sentiment driving flows into the safe-haven currency.
Mounting concerns over overstretched valuations in AI-linked stocks sparked a wave of caution across global markets, with analysts increasingly warning that the sector may be entering bubble territory.
The mood was further underpinned by a hawkish repricing of Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations, keeping USD supported through the session.
Sterling struggled to gain traction on Tuesday as investors remained hesitant ahead of next week’s tightly watched autumn budget.
Recent reports have raised more questions than answers regarding Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s fiscal plans. Most notably, Reeves appeared to drop her consideration of an income tax rise, viewed by many economists as the most efficient way to raise revenue and close the estimated £20bn fiscal gap.
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Without that lever, Reeves may be forced to rely on a mosaic of smaller tax hikes.
GBP investors fear this approach risks complicating the tax landscape while doing little to revive the UK’s fragile growth outlook.
GBP/USD Forecasts: Soft UK Inflation to Reinforce BoE Rate Cut Bets?
Looking ahead, the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate looks vulnerable on Wednesday as markets brace for the UK’s latest consumer price index.
Economists expect headline inflation to ease from 3.8% to 3.6% in October—the first cooling of prices since May.
A softer reading would likely cement expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will restart its rate-cutting cycle in December, which could weigh on Sterling.
Also on the radar are the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes. Should the minutes strike a hawkish tone or cast doubt on a December rate cut, the US Dollar may find fresh support.
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The GBPJPY pair continued providing positive trading, noticing its stability above 203.95 and recording some gains by its rally towards 204.50, but stochastic negativity by its attempt to surpass the overbought level that might decelerate the bullish rally in the current period trading.
All that make us prefer the sideways trading, reminding you that the stability above the support at 201,70 forms a main factor for confirming the dominance of the bullish track, therefore, we will keep waiting for gathering extra bullish momentum to ease the mission of recording positive gains by its rally towards 205.25.
The expected trading range for today is between 203.35 and 204.65
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track
The EURJPY pair’s stability within the bullish trend that depends on the continuation of forming extra support at 178.00 level, but the contradiction between the main indicators pushes it to form sideways fluctuation by its stability below the psychological barrier at 180.00.
The price might be forced to provide more of the sideways trading until gathering extra positive momentum, to surpass the current barrier and begin forming extra gains by its rally at 180.60 initially reaching the next main target at 181.55.
The expected trading range for today is between 179.30 and 180.60
The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) held around 1.3170 on Monday as markets braced for one of the most important data weeks of the quarter, with UK inflation and delayed US jobs figures set to steer rate expectations on both sides of the Atlantic.
GBP/USD Forecasts: Consolidating Below 1.32
The Pound to Dollar rate has not been able to make another challenge on 1.32 and is trading close to 1.3170 with markets tense ahead of key data releases and braced for further policy hints from the UK government.
The UK 10-year bond yield edged lower to 4.56% from 4.58% which helped stabilise confidence.
According to UoB; “today, we continue to expect GBP to trade between 1.3120 and 1.3200.”
CIBC expects no GBP/USD change by the end of 2025 with a peak at 1.36 for the second quarter of 2026.
UK fiscal and monetary policy developments will be key elements this week with the latest inflation data on Wednesday.
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Consensus forecasts are for the headline rate to retreat to 3.6% from 3.8% with the core rate declining slightly to 3.4% from 3.5%. There has been a jump in expectations surrounding a December Bank of England rate cut and softer than expected data would reinforce this trend.
Evidence of sticky inflation, however, would risk a reassessment of the outlook.
As far as fiscal policy is concerned, there is still a high degree of uncertainty and unease over the budget following Friday’s U-turn on income tax hikes.
Scotiabank noted Friday’s hit to confidence; “While the revisions are welcome from a fiscal standpoint, they are worrisome from a market perspective, offering malleability as markets seek stability.”
As far as the US is concerned, the release of the delayed October jobs data is due on Thursday.
Consensus forecasts are for a small increase in non-farm payrolls for the month, but with a high degree of uncertainty while the BLS has indicated that the household data, including the unemployment rate, will not be released.
Fed minutes from October’s meeting will be released on Wednesday.
There has been a further shift in pricing for the December Federal Reserve policy meeting with traders now pricing in only around a 45% chance of a further cut in interest rates.
ING commented; “Presumably, the Federal Reserve is far happier with that kind of pricing, given the lack of available data currently. This also means that the dollar may not have to rally too far on Wednesday evening’s event risk of the FOMC minutes of that 28-29 October policy meeting.”
CIBC expects a decline in labour supply will lessen the risk of higher unemployment and added; “For this reason, we see Powell pausing at the December FOMC meeting, which may put very near-term upwards pressure on the US dollar.”
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USD/JPY continues to climb after breaking above the key 155 level, supported by a wide rate differential.
Pullbacks remain buying opportunities, with traders eyeing 154 and 153 as support and a potential move toward 159.
The US dollar has rallied during Monday trading to show strength again against the Japanese yen as we have broken above the 155 yen level, an area that is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that clearing is a very strong sign. Short-term pullbacks open up the possibility of buying dips, with the 154 yen level being support right along with the 153 yen level.
This Pair Pays to be Long
Keep in mind that the interest rate differential continues to favor the US dollar and the Japanese yen despite the fact that the Japanese yen is seeing rates rise behind it. That actually is a significant problem. And I think money will run from Japan as market participants continue to see just what kind of pickle the Japanese are in. Demographics are coming to roost right along with all of that quantitative easing that had been going on for decades.
With this, I still like the idea of buying the US dollar on short-term pullbacks as it will eventually show up as being bullish, and value hunters, I think, continue to drive this pair much higher. It doesn’t mean that we explode to the upside, but keep in mind that you get paid at the end of every day, and I think traders will just simply hang on to this. I have a target of about 159 yen at the moment, but we’ll just have to wait and see.
I’ve been long of this pair since the middle of summer in various amounts and have no interest whatsoever in shorting right now.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
The GBP/JPY rallies to a five-week high of 204.53 on Monday, up by 0.33% as the Japanese Yen weakens on growing tensions between China and Japan.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The GBP/JPY technical picture shows the pair is neutral biased tilted to the upside with key resistance levels found at 204.50. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish, though it shows that buyers are losing some momentum.
For a bullish continuation, buyers must clear the 204.50 area, ahead of challenging 205.00. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the October 8 high at 205.32, followed by 206.00.
Conversely if sellers push GBP/JPY below 204.00, the pair could challenge the 20-day SMA at 202.71. On further weakness the next support is 202.00
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
GBP/JPY Daily chart
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.00%
0.05%
-0.02%
0.03%
0.11%
0.06%
-0.06%
EUR
-0.00%
0.05%
-0.02%
0.02%
0.11%
0.06%
-0.06%
GBP
-0.05%
-0.05%
-0.06%
-0.02%
0.06%
0.02%
-0.11%
JPY
0.02%
0.02%
0.06%
0.03%
0.12%
0.06%
-0.05%
CAD
-0.03%
-0.02%
0.02%
-0.03%
0.09%
0.04%
-0.09%
AUD
-0.11%
-0.11%
-0.06%
-0.12%
-0.09%
-0.05%
-0.16%
NZD
-0.06%
-0.06%
-0.02%
-0.06%
-0.04%
0.05%
-0.12%
CHF
0.06%
0.06%
0.11%
0.05%
0.09%
0.16%
0.12%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
The Pound US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) saw limited movement on Monday as markets continued to reassess expectations for future Federal Reserve monetary policy.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3171, virtually unchanged from Monday’s opening levels.
The US Dollar (USD) strengthened at the start of the week as investors further unwound expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut.
The likelihood of a December reduction has fallen sharply to around 45%, from roughly 90% just a month ago.
A cautious global mood also underpinned the Greenback, with weaker-than-expected Q3 GDP readings from Japan and Switzerland heightening concerns about global growth and prompting renewed demand for safe-haven assets such as the Dollar.
The Pound (GBP), meanwhile, traded broadly sideways as uncertainty surrounding the UK’s autumn budget continued to act as a drag on Sterling sentiment.
Markets remain unsure of the size of the UK’s fiscal gap and which measures Chancellor Rachel Reeves may introduce to plug it.
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Reeves had previously signalled that income tax could rise, but reports last week suggesting she had backed away from the idea unsettled investors, pushing gilt yields higher and knocking Sterling.
Compounding budget anxiety are expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) may cut rates next month, keeping a lid on GBP buying interest.
GBP/USD Forecast: ADP Jobs Data Could Pressure the Dollar
Looking ahead, Tuesday’s US ADP employment report will be in sharp focus.
If the figures reveal another slowdown in private-sector hiring, the Dollar may weaken as markets reassess the Fed’s recent hawkish tilt.
For Sterling, attention will shift to comments from BoE policymaker Swati Dhingra, one of the Monetary Policy Committee’s most dovish members.
Any hint of support for further easing could reinforce expectations of a December rate cut and exert renewed pressure on the Pound.
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Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1600 – 1.1560 – 1.1480.
Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1670 – 1.1740 – 1.1800.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1570 with a target of 1.1800 and a stop-loss at 1.1500.
Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1730 with a target of 1.1480 and a stop-loss at 1.1800.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:
I still caution against the future rise of the EUR/USD, as the upward rebound gains last week are not yet sufficient to change the overall direction of the Euro/Dollar pair to bullish. Based on the performance on the daily chart, the Euro/Dollar price needs to break the psychological resistance level of 1.1800 for the bulls to gain strong momentum and confirm a change in the overall trend. On the platforms of reputable forex brokers, the gains of the most popular currency pair in the forex market did not exceed the 1.1656 resistance level, the pair’s highest point in two weeks, before closing trading around 1.1620. This occurred amidst the currency markets’ reaction to the official announcement of the end of the longest US government shutdown in the country’s history.
The upward rebound gains for the EUR/USD pair pushed the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) to a reading of 53, relatively far from the neutral line. At the same time, the MACD indicator lines are leaning upward, awaiting stronger impetus. The scenario of a Euro/Dollar decline will gain strength again if the bears return the currency pair to the vicinity of the support levels 1.1550 and 1.1480, respectively. Today, the Euro/Dollar is not anticipating major and influential economic data, only a round of statements from some members of the US Federal Reserve.
Trading Tips:
Carefully and cautiously monitor the influencing factors on the currency market, represented by US economic releases and signals from the US Federal Reserve, to determine the most suitable trading entries for the currency pair.
Why has the US dollar risen recently?
According to Forex currency market trading, the US Dollar price saw a rise in recent weeks as a result of the decline in expectations for a US interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. While the probability of a cut was almost certain just one month ago, the market now sees the chance of a cut as 50/50. Expectations have since stabilized around this level, and Dollar trading has relinquished some of its recent gains.
Overall, the US Dollar’s rise was temporarily suspended once investors began to see signs of progress toward ending the US government shutdown, which finally ended in the middle of the week. This revives hopes that official US economic data will start to appear soon, providing a stronger basis for Federal Reserve interest rate expectations.
Consequently, investors are likely to wait for the data before pushing the US dollar higher.
At the same time, Treasury yields slipped, with the 2-year at 3.60% and the 10-year at 4.14%, signaling a more cautious bond market.
Fed Signals Reinforce Reduced Easing Expectations
The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 46% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December, down from 67% a week earlier. This adjustment follows a series of measured comments from Federal Reserve officials.
Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said policy should continue to “lean against demand growth,” describing current rates as “modestly restrictive.” St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem added that rates are now closer to neutral, cautioning that there is limited room to ease without creating broader risks.
These remarks have tempered expectations for rapid policy shifts and kept investors hesitant to price in earlier cuts.
Market Awaits Delayed US Economic Releases
Attention is now turning to upcoming US data releases delayed by the recent government shutdown. The September Nonfarm Payrolls report is due on November 20, but gaps remain for several October indicators.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett cautioned that some October data may not be recoverable, leaving markets waiting for clearer signals on the Fed’s next steps.
