USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting and dropped the tightening bias in the statement.
• The US PCE came
  in line with expectations.
• The US Jobless Claims missed
  expectations although the data is still in the recent ranges.
• The latest US PMIs
  increased further from the prior month with the Manufacturing PMI beating
  expectations and the Services PMI missing.
• The US Consumer
  Confidence missed expectations across the board.
• The market expects the first rate cut in June.

JPY

• The BoJ kept its monetary policy unchanged as expected at the last meeting with
  interest rates at -0.10% and the 10 year JGB yield target at 0% with 1% as a
  reference cap.
• The Japanese CPI beat expectations although all
  measures eased further from the prior readings.
• The latest Unemployment Rate remained unchanged hovering around
  cycle lows.
• The Japanese PMIs improved for both the Manufacturing
  and Services measures although the former remains in contractionary territory.
• The Japanese wage data missed expectations again recently
  although there was a pick up from the prior reading.
• The market expects the BoJ to hike
  rates in Q2.

USDJPY Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see
that USDJPY yesterday sold off following some hawkish comments from BoJ’s
Takata. The buyers stepped in around the red 21 moving average as the
big picture remained unchanged. In fact, even if the BoJ hikes, it’s unlikely
to embark on a real tightening cycle given the falling inflation rate. The
target for the buyers remains the cycle high at 151.90.

USDJPY
Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more closely the
yesterday’s selloff with the latest leg lower caused by the US data where the
PCE came in line with expectations and the US Jobless Claims missed forecasts.
The buyers will now need the price to break above the resistance around
the 150.89 level to increase the bullish bets into the cycle high. The sellers,
on the other hand, will likely step in around the resistance with a defined
risk above it to position for a drop into new lows.

USDJPY Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
latest leg lower diverged with
the MACD which
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. The buyers took it as an opportunity to fade the selloff and
position for a rally back into the highs. We now have a support zone around the
150.10 level where we can also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. If we
were to get a pullback, that’s where we can expect the buyers to step in again
for another rally into the highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking lower to pile in and target new lows.

Upcoming Events

Today the only notable event will be the release of
the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.