BitcoinWorld

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Edges Lower Below 185.00, Near-Term Bullish Bias Remains Intact

The EUR/JPY cross edged lower in early European trading on Thursday, slipping below the 185.00 psychological handle as the Japanese yen found modest support. Despite the intraday pullback, the near-term technical outlook for the pair remains cautiously bullish, with buyers defending key support levels near the 184.50 zone.

Technical Levels in Focus

The pair is currently trading around 184.80, down approximately 0.2% on the day, after failing to sustain gains above the 185.00 mark. The immediate resistance sits at 185.20, the recent swing high, followed by the 185.50 area. On the downside, initial support is seen at 184.50, with a break below that exposing the 184.00 level and the 50-day simple moving average near 183.70.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has eased from overbought territory but remains above 50, indicating that bullish momentum, while fading, has not yet reversed. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows a bearish crossover on the hourly chart, suggesting the pullback could extend in the short term before buyers step in again.

Market Drivers Behind the Move

The Japanese yen strengthened broadly after comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members reinforced expectations of a gradual policy normalization. Meanwhile, the euro struggled for direction amid mixed eurozone economic data and a cautious tone in equity markets. The combination of a slightly firmer yen and profit-taking after recent euro gains weighed on the cross.

Traders are now looking ahead to eurozone inflation data due later this week, which could influence European Central Bank (ECB) rate expectations and provide fresh impetus for EUR/JPY. Any upside surprise in inflation could support the euro, while a weaker reading might accelerate the current pullback.

What This Means for Traders

For short-term traders, the pullback below 185.00 offers a potential re-entry point for bullish positions if support at 184.50 holds. A sustained break above 185.20 would signal renewed buying interest and open the path toward 185.50 and beyond. Conversely, a daily close below 184.00 would negate the near-term bullish bias and shift focus to the downside.

Longer-term, the trend remains constructive as long as the pair stays above the 183.00 region, which aligns with the 100-day moving average. The broader macroeconomic backdrop—diverging monetary policy paths between the ECB and BoJ—continues to favor the euro over the yen, but traders should remain vigilant for sudden shifts in risk sentiment.

Conclusion

EUR/JPY is experiencing a healthy correction after recent gains, with the near-term bullish bias still intact above 184.50. The outcome of upcoming eurozone inflation data and BoJ commentary will likely determine whether the pair resumes its uptrend or deepens its pullback. Traders should monitor key technical levels and manage risk accordingly.

FAQs

Q1: What is the key support level for EUR/JPY right now?
The immediate support is at 184.50, followed by 184.00 and the 50-day SMA near 183.70. A break below these levels would weaken the bullish outlook.

Q2: Why did EUR/JPY fall below 185.00?
The decline was driven by a modest strengthening of the Japanese yen after BoJ comments reinforced expectations of policy normalization, combined with profit-taking after recent euro gains and cautious market sentiment.

Q3: Is the bullish trend for EUR/JPY still valid?
Yes, the near-term bullish bias remains intact as long as the pair holds above 184.50. The broader trend is still constructive above the 183.00 region, supported by the ECB-BoJ policy divergence.

This post EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Edges Lower Below 185.00, Near-Term Bullish Bias Remains Intact first appeared on BitcoinWorld.

The EURJPY pair failed to breach the barrier at 185.80, forcing it to provide negative trading, to reach %50 Fibonacci corrective level near 184.85, to begin forming sideways trading to reinforce the chances of gaining extra positive momentum.

Reminding you that the bullish scenario will remain valid, depending on the continuation of forming main support at 184.20 level, making us keep the bullish scenario by the attempt of targeting 185.30 level, to repeat the attempts of pressing on the previously mentioned barrier, while breaking the main support and holding below it will confirm its move to the negative trend, forcing it to suffer several losses by reaching 183.70 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between 184.600 and 185.80

Trend forecast: Bullish

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound-to-Dollar Forecast: Sterling Rally Stalls Ahead of Key US Data

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) surrendered part of its recent recovery after failing to hold above 1.3250, as the Dollar regained some support despite a softer US consumer confidence reading.

While Sterling continues to benefit from easing concerns over the UK’s political transition, investors remain reluctant to push the pair higher ahead of key US economic data and further comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Retreat from 1-Week High

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate was unable to hold above 1.3250 on Tuesday and retreated to near 1.3210 after the New York open as the Pound was unable to gain further ground.

UoB commented; “To sustain the momentum build-up, GBP must hold above 1.3180.”

Scotiabank is still positive on the outlook; “the pattern of trade suggests the pound should find support on dips to the upper 1.31 area and that gains should pick up momentum above 1.3250/60.”

Domestically, markets remained focussed on the potential Cabinet appointments from Andy Burnham and the outlook for fiscal policy.

The data had little impact with GDP for the first quarter of 2026 confirmed at 0.6%

According to Societe Generale chief FX strategist Kit Juckes; “Sterling’s supported by the fact that Andy Burnham was talking about devolution yesterday, that’s not a dangerous topic for him to talk about (for markets).”

He added; “The kind of devolution he wants might be expensive so we’ll have to see where that goes, but he’s done nothing to hurt and so some more sterling bears have been squeezed out.”

As far as US data is concerned, the job-openings release was stronger than expected, but consumer confidence fell short of expectations.

According to ING; “USD bullish momentum has clearly faded, and improved risk sentiment argues against another sharp leg higher for now, at least until Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Sintra speech tomorrow and Thursday’s jobs data provide clearer direction.”

Fed policy will continue to be watched closely after the Supreme Court ruled on Monday that President Trump did not have the authority to dismiss Fed Governor Cook.

MUFG commented; “The Supreme Court ruling adds to the recent hawkish rhetoric from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh who emphasized the need to meet the price stability part of the Fed’s dual mandate at his first press conference.”

It added; “Together the developments have helped to dampen investor concerns over threats to the Fed’s independence under President Trump; and have triggered a further reversal of popular US dollar debasement trades from earlier this year.”

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

ADP Employment Change report showed that private businesses added 98,000 jobs in June, compared to analyst forecast of 113,000. Tomorrow, traders will focus on the Non Farm Payrolls report, which is expected to show that U.S. economy added 110,000 jobs in June. The Non Farm Payrolls data will likely have a material impact on forex market dynamics.

In case U.S. Dollar Index settles above 101.15 – 101.30, it will head towards the nearest resistance level, which is located in the 101.85 – 102.00 range. On the support side, a move below the 101.15 level will push U.S. Dollar Index towards the next support at 100.50 – 100.65.

EUR/USD Retreats As Euro Area Inflation Rate Drops To 2.8%

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Still bearish.

• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1375 – 1.1320 – 1.1250

• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1470 – 1.1530 – 1.1580

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy scenario: From the support level of 1.1365 with a target of 1.1430 and a stop-loss at 1.1300

• Sell scenario: From the resistance level of 1.1530 with a target of 1.1400 and a stop-loss at 1.1600

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today

The EUR/USD currency pair is attempting to recover a portion of its losses at the start of July trading, after ending June with its steepest monthly bearish wave in several months. This comes amid persistent pressure stemming from slowing European inflation and as markets closely await comments from central bank officials. The sharp losses suffered last month dragged the pair down to the support level of 1.1324, its lowest level in over a year. At the time of writing, the Euro is stabilizing around $1.1425.

The technical outlook for the currency pair remains bearish. According to the performance on the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stabilizing below the 50 level reflects continued seller dominance. Meanwhile, the negative slope of the MACD indicator indicates weakening buying momentum and the likelihood of sustained selling pressure. The movement of the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) warns of further downward movement as long as the currency pair remains below the 1.1400 level.

Conversely, an upside scenario on the daily chart would require the EUR/USD pair to head toward breaking the resistance barrier at 1.1580, and then 1.1700 respectively.

Today, the currency pair will be influenced by market and investor reactions to statements from central bank officials, particularly the heads of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve, during an event hosted by the ECB that gathers a number of global central bank policymakers.

Falling Inflation Weighs on the Euro

Across top trading platforms, the Euro faces mounting pressure following the release of French and German inflation data that came in lower than market expectations. This has reinforced expectations that the European Central Bank’s need to continue raising interest rates in the coming period is diminishing.

Data showed that inflation in Germany fell by 0.3% on a monthly basis, while the annual rate slowed to 2.3% against expectations of 2.6%. In France, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped 0.3% during June, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 1.8% compared to a forecast of 2.1%.

Analysts believe that the ongoing slowdown in inflation could prompt markets to pare back bets on any additional interest rate hikes, which may cap the Euro’s gains against major currencies. Andreas Steno Larsen of Real Vision noted that the recent data strengthens the likelihood of the ECB shifting its approach in the coming period.

Despite this, ECB officials maintain a cautious stance. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that monetary policy decisions will remain data-dependent, while Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned that energy price pressures could keep inflation above the target level for some time.

For its part, ING Bank expects a temporary spike in inflation during the second half of the year due to base effects in energy prices, before it returns to levels below 2% over the medium term. The bank stressed that current conditions differ from the severe inflationary wave witnessed globally in 2022, noting the absence of indicators pointing to a new inflationary spiral.

Consequently, the Euro may receive limited support in the short term due to the ECB’s continued cautious tone. However, the persistent slowdown in inflation could drive markets to lower interest rate hike expectations, potentially keeping the single currency under pressure in the coming months.

Trading Advice:

The Euro may remain under selling pressure until the market reacts to upcoming high-impact data releases. Regardless of your bullish or bearish convictions, strict risk management is absolutely essential.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD analysis and predictions? Here are the best European brokers to choose from.

Mahmoud Abdullah is a financial markets analyst who has been covering global market movements for several years, with a particular focus on forex trading, commodities, indices, and macroeconomic price action analysis. He has been analyzing global financial markets since 2006 and currently serves as the Chief Analyst and Editor-in-Chief of the well-known website Traders Up. Mahmoud Abdullah combines technical analysis with macroeconomic context to understand market trends, paying close attention to price behavior, momentum, support and resistance levels, risk management, and evaluating high-probability market opportunities.

As seen on: mahmoud.a@dailyforex.com

Copper price ended the last positive rebound by reaching $6.2000 level, to begin forming bearish corrective trading, affected by the stability below $6.300 barrier, to reach $6.0500 currently.

Gathering extra negative momentum is important for reinforcing the chances of surpassing the barrier at $5.9500, to open the way for targeting more corrective stations, which might begin at $5.8200 and $5.7100.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.820 and $6.1500

Trend forecast: Bearish

The EURJPY pair succeeded in holding above 184.20 level, to reinforce its surrender to the bullish scenario, to record the previously suggested main target at 185.80.

Facing %66.8 Fibonacci correction level makes us monitor its behavior and wait for the next close to detect the main trend, so the stability above 185.80 will provide a chance for targeting more positive stations by its rally towards 186.20 and 186.60, while the failure to breach it will force the price to provide mixed sideways trading, with a chance to decline towards 184.90 before any attempt to record the suggested targets.

The expected trading range for today is between 185.30 and 186.20

Trend forecast: Bullish

The US dollar, of course, is rallying against the Canadian dollar, with the 1.42 level offering a little bit of support and the 1.4250 level being a little bit of resistance. This is a strong uptrend for multiple reasons, not the least of which would be the fact that oil had sold off, but more importantly, in this pair, the interest rate differential favors the United States, not to mention the fact that the Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates a couple of times between now and the end of the year.

The 1.43 level will be targeted. After that, we could be talking about 1.45.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Bearish, with sellers remaining in control

• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1365 – 1.1290 – 1.1220

• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1470 – 1.1530 – 1.1580

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy scenario: From the support level of 1.1360 with a target of 1.1430 and a stop-loss at 1.1300

• Sell scenario: From the resistance level of 1.1520 with a target of 1.1400 and a stop-loss at 1.1590

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today

The EUR/USD pair kicked off the week’s trading with recovery attempts following a strong sell-off wave that pushed the pair to its lowest levels in nearly a year. However, this rebound is still viewed as a corrective move within a primary bearish trend, given the continued outperformance of the US Dollar, supported by robust US economic data and growing expectations that tight monetary policy will be maintained for a longer period.

According to the best trusted trading platforms, the Euro is stabilizing against the Dollar around the 1.1425 level at the time of writing this analysis.

Technically, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 1.1325 area after entering a clear oversold zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell below 30, which often indicates a potential short-term technical correction due to profit-taking and repositioning by investors.

Despte this improvement, the overall technical picture remains tilted to the negative side. The pair continues to trade below the pivotal resistance level at 1.1500. Also, it moves below the 100-day Moving Average. Obviously, reflecting the continued dominance of the bearish trend over the medium term.

If the current rebound persists, the pair might target a retest of the area between 1.1480 and 1.1500. However, this zone could witness a return of selling pressures unless the price manages to clearly close above it.

On the downside, the 1.1350 level remains the first important support zone, while the recent bottom at 1.1325 represents a key level to monitor, as breaking it could open the door for a new downward wave targeting lower levels in the coming period.

In my view, as long as the pair remains below 1.1500, any upward movement will remain a selling opportunity rather than the start of a new uptrend, especially given the continued divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank’s policies.

Fundamental Factors Driving Euro Movements

Beyond technical indicators, investors are anticipating a batch of European data this week that could directly impact the single currency’s movements. Foremost among these are the preliminary inflation readings in Spain, France, Germany, and Italy, ahead of the release of the eurozone’s flash aggregate reading.

This data is of particular importance as it could determine the European Central Bank’s direction in its upcoming meetings, especially following persistent concerns over services sector inflation, which remains one of the most prominent challenges facing monetary policymakers.

Currently, all eyes are on the European Central Bank’s annual conference in Sintra, Portugal, where investors await any new signals from ECB President Christine Lagarde regarding the future of interest rates. A hawkish tone could provide temporary support for the euro, while statements suggesting a possible pause in monetary tightening could increase pressure on the European currency.

Meanwhile, the US dollar remains the primary driver of the pair’s direction, with markets anticipating US labor market data, particularly the non-farm payrolls report, a key indicator influencing Federal Reserve decisions.

Forecasts indicate a slowdown in the pace of job creation compared to previous months, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain near 4.3%, with average monthly wages continuing to grow.

According to Forex market trading, the Dollar’s strength over the past weeks was driven by the release of economic data that beat forecasts. Along with rising market bets on the potential continuation of tight monetary policy, which boosted demand for the US currency.

However, any negative surprise in jobs data or economic activity indicators could prompt investors to reduce their bets on interest rate hikes, potentially giving the euro a chance to continue its corrective rebound.

Technical Outlook Summary

The most likely scenario remains a continuation of the short-term technical recovery as long as the pair trades above 1.1325. However, this rebound will remain limited unless the price manages to break through the 1.1500 level and close above it.

Conversely, if buyers fail to overcome this resistance, coupled with the release of strong US data, selling pressure could quickly resurface and push the pair towards its recent low, with the overall trend remaining bearish until further notice.

Trading Advice:

the Euro may remain under selling pressure until the reaction to upcoming major releases—specifically the US payrolls. Regardless of your conviction to buy or sell, strict risk management is absolutely essential amid the ongoing state of market uncertainty.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD daily forecast? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers in Europe to check out.