• The Euro has fallen to break down below the 200-day EMA on Tuesday as interest rates continue to be a major driver of where we go.

• The US 10-year yield is now above 4.67%, which is extraordinarily high compared to recent years and with that being the case it makes sense that the US dollar will strengthen.

The Euro of course is suffering at the hands of the potential for a lack of energy in the European Union if the situation in the Middle East continues to be a problem.

By breaking below the 200-day EMA we have seen a decided negative shift in the EUR/USD market and it looks like we could go down to the 1.15 level, possibly even the 1.14 level.

Watching the Potential Ceiling

The market has previously been bouncing around in a range that is supported at the 1.14 level, so it does make sense that we might try to get down there. The 1.1850 level above is a significant barrier and something that we need to watch very closely as the potential ceiling.

We’re basically just breaking down below the fair value area if you will and as a result I think we’ve got a situation where the US dollar just continues to outwork everything else and that of course will include the Euro.

I’m not looking for a meltdown here, but I do believe that given enough time the Euro will reach to the bottom of this range unless something drastic happens where the Strait of Hormuz suddenly gets opened and even then, we’ve got some rocky road ahead of us.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD daily forecast? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers in Europe to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

The price of platinum yesterday succumbed to repeated negative pressures, breaking the stable support level at $1950.00, signaling its readiness to resume the corrective decline by currently settling near the first additional target at $1910.00.

The stochastic indicator is observed to be positioned in the oversold area, which further increases bearish pressure on today’s trading, raising the chances of targeting additional downside levels as the price is drawn toward $1865.00. A break below this level could extend losses toward $1820.00 and $1780.00 respectively.

On the other hand, a break above the stable barrier near $2080.00 would cancel the negative outlook and open the door for a renewed upward move in the upcoming sessions.

The expected trading range for today is between $1865.00 and $1950.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Softer Wage Growth Weighs on Pound Sterling

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate moved lower on Tuesday following the release of weaker-than-expected UK labour market figures.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3396, down roughly 0.4% from the opening levels of Tuesday’s session.

The Pound (GBP) came under pressure on Tuesday as disappointing labour market data brought Sterling’s recent gains to a halt.

According to figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up from 4.9% to 5% in March, while wage growth slowed from 3.6% to 3.4%.

The easing in pay growth unsettled GBP investors in particular, as it suggested household incomes are struggling to keep pace with inflation amid elevated energy prices linked to the ongoing Middle East crisis.

As a result, markets scaled back expectations for further monetary tightening from the Bank of England (BoE), with some analysts questioning whether policymakers will still move ahead with a rate hike in June.

The US Dollar (USD) strengthened modestly on Tuesday as investors continued to favour safer assets amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty.

Market caution remained tied to developments in the Middle East, where tensions between the US and Iran continue to cloud investor sentiment.

Late on Monday, US President Donald Trump claimed via social media that he had abandoned plans for military action against Iran following appeals from Gulf nations and because ‘serious negotiations’ were underway.

Despite the comments, markets remained sceptical, with many investors unconvinced that a breakthrough in talks is close given the significant divisions that remain between Washington and Tehran.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Softer UK Inflation to Pressure Sterling?

Looking ahead, the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate may remain on the back foot on Wednesday with the release of the UK’s latest inflation figures.

Economists expect April’s consumer price index to show inflation cooling, despite elevated global energy prices, which could further reduce expectations for a near-term BoE interest rate increase.

Meanwhile, USD investors will be closely watching the publication of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting.

If the minutes suggest policymakers are becoming more concerned about inflation risks and open to further tightening, the US Dollar could strengthen further through the midweek session.

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The GBPJPY pair reached 211.20 level in its last negative moves, affected by the positivity of the main indicators, to notice forming a strong bullish trend to retest %50 Fibonacci correction level at 213.50 to settle below it.

The stability below 213.50 level will make the price renew the corrective attempts, gathering the negative momentum makes us expect reaching 212.35 initially, to repeat the attempts of breaking the barrier at 211.80, while its rally above 213.50 might provide a chance for attacking the main barrier at 214.50, which represents a key for detecting the main trend in the upcoming trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 212.30 and 213.50

Trend forecast: Bearish

Interest rates around the world continue to climb and that of course will make the Japanese Yen a little less interesting. And as long as that’s the case, you get paid to hold on to this position to the upside, then traders are probably going to prefer the Euro.

Geopolitical Factors and Technical Levels

The overall attitude of markets right now is one that we don’t really know what to do because most of what’s throwing things around would be headlines coming out of the Middle East which can change at any given moment. President Donald Trump has now given the Iranians another ultimatum for the end of day tomorrow before things start getting ugly again and I think people are going to be watching that as well.

If we can break above the 185.50 Yen level, that could open up a move towards the 188 Yen level, but keep in mind the Bank of Japan has previously intervened in that region.

Short-term pullbacks I think may make nice buying opportunities extending all the way down to the 182 Yen level in the EUR/JPY pair. I think you’ve got an environment now where you are buying dips, but we don’t know whether or not we are going to truly take off to the upside or if it’s going to be more of a bumpy ride back and forth, maybe consolidating a little bit in order to try to kill time waiting for the next move in risk appetite.

Begin trading our daily forecasts and analysis. Here is a list of Forex brokers in Japan to work with.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

The GBPJPY pair reached 211.20 level in its last negative moves, affected by the positivity of the main indicators, to notice forming a strong bullish trend to retest %50 Fibonacci correction level at 213.50 to settle below it.

The stability below 213.50 level will make the price renew the corrective attempts, gathering the negative momentum makes us expect reaching 212.35 initially, to repeat the attempts of breaking the barrier at 211.80, while its rally above 213.50 might provide a chance for attacking the main barrier at 214.50, which represents a key for detecting the main trend in the upcoming trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 212.30 and 213.50

Trend forecast: Bearish

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate retreated towards 1.3380 after failing to hold gains above the 1.34 level, with Sterling undermined by a stronger US Dollar and renewed concerns surrounding UK political and fiscal risks.

ING notes that the global bond-market sell-off has become an important negative for the Pound, particularly as investors reassess exposure to economies with widening fiscal pressures.

The bank considers that recent UK political developments have increased uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy credibility and could trigger a higher Sterling risk premium.

“During this period, international investors may want to avoid UK exposure, and at its extreme, another 3-4% in risk premium could be priced into sterling.”

ING also notes that rising US Treasury yields continue to support the Dollar more broadly as markets scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

That combination leaves GBP/USD vulnerable in the short term, especially if global risk appetite deteriorates further.

The bank expects support around the 1.3250–1.3300 area to come under increasing focus if bond-market volatility persists.

At the same time, ING still considers Sterling relatively better positioned against the Euro given ongoing structural growth concerns within the eurozone.

Near-term direction will depend heavily on global bond markets, Federal Reserve expectations and whether UK political tensions continue to intensify.

For now, ING considers that the balance of risks remains tilted towards further GBP/USD weakness.

The dollar to Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate strengthened to highs near 158.5 at the start of the week, maintaining pressure on the Japanese currency after another rise in US Treasury yields.

MUFG notes that the yen remains vulnerable in the short term, especially with energy prices rising again and global bond markets under renewed pressure.

The bank expects yield differentials to remain an important driver, particularly as markets continue scaling back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

In this context, MUFG expects USD/JPY to remain close to the upper end of its recent range, with the bank targeting a 157.00–160.00 range in the short term.

“Fundamental factors continue to favour further yen weakness and will keep pressure on Japan to intervene again to support the yen as the USD/JPY moves back closer to the 160.00-level.”

MUFG also notes that Japan’s fiscal position is attracting increased scrutiny following discussion of another supplementary budget package and rising long-dated Japanese government bond yields.

The bank considers that higher oil prices are an additional negative for the yen given Japan’s dependence on imported energy.

At the same time, volatility could increase sharply if markets begin testing the Japanese authorities’ tolerance for renewed yen weakness.

The bank still sees scope for periods of yen recovery over the medium term, particularly if geopolitical tensions intensify further or US economic data starts to weaken more materially.

In the short term, however, MUFG considers that the balance of risks still favours a higher USD/JPY pair.

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Recovers as UK Bond Markets Stabilise

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate strengthened on Monday, clawing back some of last week’s losses as UK political concerns began to ease and British bond markets stabilised.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3393, up around 0.5% on the day.

The Pound (GBP) climbed on Monday as investors appeared to take a calmer view of the UK’s political backdrop.

Pound Sterling had been knocked last week by mounting speculation over Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s position, with the uncertainty spilling into the bond market and sending UK borrowing costs sharply higher.

However, the mood improved at the start of the week as fears of an imminent leadership challenge began to recede.

Further reassurance came from Andy Burnham, seen as a potential challenger, after he suggested that he would maintain the government’s current fiscal rules if he became Prime Minister.

His comments helped cool concerns around the UK’s fiscal outlook, allowing gilt yields to pull back from their recent near-18-year highs and easing a key source of pressure on the Pound.

GBP also found some support from the IMF’s latest UK growth upgrade. The fund lifted its 2026 forecast from 0.8% to 1%, citing the economy’s ‘strong pre-war momentum’.

With political nerves easing and borrowing costs retreating, Sterling was able to regain some of the ground lost during last week’s volatility.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) weakened on Monday as investors locked in gains following the currency’s strong run last week, which had carried USD to multi-week highs.

The safe-haven ‘Greenback’ also struggled to attract much fresh demand amid an uneven market mood.

Ongoing attacks in the Middle East kept investors cautious, preventing a stronger risk-on rally. However, tentative optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal helped curb demand for safer assets.

As a result, the US Dollar lost ground as traders trimmed positions after last week’s advance.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK Labour Data to Lift the Pound?

Looking ahead, the Pound could be driven by the UK’s latest labour market figures on Tuesday.

Economists expect unemployment to have held at 4.9% in the three months to March, pointing to a broadly unchanged jobs market. Wage growth is also forecast to remain steady, while employment is expected to rise by 107,000.

If the figures print in line with expectations, signs of resilience in the UK labour market could reinforce the view that the Bank of England (BoE) may need to raise interest rates.

Later in the session, comments from BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden may also influence GBP. A hawkish tone from Breeden could help the Pound extend its gains.

For the US Dollar, the latest ADP weekly employment change figure may attract attention as investors look for fresh signals on the strength of the US jobs market.

Meanwhile, risk sentiment could remain a key driver of the ‘Greenback’. Any further developments in the Middle East may trigger volatility, particularly if they shift demand for safe-haven currencies.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts